Mild Winter? Here’s NOAA’s 2018-2019 Outlook

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During the winter, typical El Nino conditions in the USA can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North.

The Climate Prediction Center (a division of NOAA) has released their early outlook for the winter 2018-2019 season.

The seasonal forecast is predicting warmer-than-normal conditions for most of the northern and western United States with the Pacific Northwest and Alaska seeing the biggest difference in temperatures.

The Southeast, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic can go any way on temperature, Halpert said. "There's a 70-to-75 percent chance El Nino will develop in the next few months".

Because of the uncertainty in seasonal prediction, NOAA's winter outlook is probabilistic in nature, meaning that a range of outcomes is possible in any area. "During the winter, typical El Niño conditions in the USA can include wetter-than-average precipitation in the South and drier conditions in parts of the North", according to NOAA. But there isn't anywhere in the country who are definitely due for a colder-than-normal winter.

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It also said that wetter-than-average conditions are likely across the southern part of the US, and up into the Mid-Atlantic. The northern half stays drier while the southern half gets extra precipitation. But in case you need some talking down, a new forecast from NOAA says that at the very least, it won't be a nightmare this year.

During that time, an Arctic cold front will move across the US and produce bitter winds and a drop in the temperature over much of the U.S. The map below shows the mean temperatures for winter 2014. Portions of the Northern Rockies and the Northern Plains are also likely to experience drier-than-average conditions.

Northern Florida and southern Georgia could see the wettest conditions this winter, according to NOAA, followed by central and Eastern North Carolina, much of South Carolina, Texas and New Mexico, northern Georgia and far southern parts of Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas. "Even during a warmer-than-average winter, periods of cold temperatures and snowfall are still likely to occur", NOAA said.

I hasten to please the Americans, according to this forecast, in most of the States the winter will be quite (or even extremely) soft. The next update will be available on November 15.

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